October 1, 2010

September has been a good month for the market, but the S and P 500 started the year at 1132 and now is about 1141. This is not much gain for nine months. We are still waiting for the last week of October to start buying. Perhaps the November to May market will follow historical patterns, even though September did not.

September 1, 2010

Our new method for buying and selling is now posted. There will be fewer "Strong Buys" but those that make the list will be the "strongest of the Strong Buys". If we sell any of these we will post the "Sold" postion right after the Stong Buy list with a (+ or -) return percentage.

If an investor follows the strong buy list, there will now be a stated exit from the position. In all cases, a stock on the strong buy list should be sold when the target is reached.

August 1, 2010

We have reached 1100 on the S and P 500 index, which may signal an upward move in the market. We will remain active until August 15th and then begin to sell all but the Strong Buy stocks or stocks we are holding for the long term. We will avoid active trading in September and October. For more information about this strategy, see the article, Change of Season.

We are working on a new posting method which will post Strong Buys and when they should be sold. It should be ready in a few months and give higher and safer returns to those that follow our Strong Buy method.

June 1, 2010

We are posting the Strong Buy list for June, but are also advising not to take any new positions until the S and P 500 index reaches 1100, which would signal a new upward trend in the market. There are lots of trading strategies for this type of market, but the only one that works is wait for the upward move.

May 19, 2010

The S and P 500 index has crossed below the 100 day moving average at 1140 and is not far from the 200 day line at 1100. It is time to implement a plan for a market downturn. If you do not have one, feel free to use ours which is at Checklist for a Downturn.

This downturn may only last a few days, or it may last for several months. What ever your plan or method is, "do something". Do not stand by and let the value of your portfolio shrink by 3 to 4 percent per day.

May 1, 2010

Most advisors are saying "Be Careful". The market has been up for over a year. There are many active stocks that are selling at 40 to 50 times earnings. It is a time to be careful, but we do not see any signs of a bear market ahead. It is likely that the market will have much less upside and may even move sideways for a while, making buying the right stocks even more important.

We are changing the Metals and Mining concentration to Technology. There are still a lot of low priced mining stocks that are worth keeping an eye on and we have posted our buying list on the High Risk page, but the regular mining companies have all reached a fair and full valuation. There are no "Strong Buys" in Mining. In the metals area, we still believe that Sutor (SUTR) and General Steel (GSI) will reach their targets, so there is no reason to sell them, just because we are moving to a Technology concentration.

March 12, 2010

The S and P 500 index (SPY) has been moving up and has reached a 17 month high. We should not have to worry about the direction of the market until June 2010. The index number to watch for is 1110, as this would signal a possible correction.

We are beginning to obtain some twelve month results of our Strong Buy Postings. The results will be at the top of this page from now on. We have stated before that if we post a strong buy, that stock will reach its target price within twelve months. We do not try to forecast further in the future than twelve months.

February 2, 2010

The S and P 500 index (SPY) crossed over the 100 day moving average on January 29, 2010. This is not the end of the market, but it is a time to be more cautious and less speculative. Sometimes the market will move back up almost immediately and the downturn signal will be over. That has happened today and the index is now around 1099. The number to watch is 1091, which if crossed will signal a downturn. We have posted an article in the Blog area that will outline a method for trading during a downturn.

January 6, 2010

The media is full of "Outlooks for 2010" and the consensus seems to be that investors should make sure they have plenty of developing countries' stocks. We are looking for more stocks from China, Brazil and Australia, but many writers prefer Russia, India and Indonesia.

The P/E for the S and P 500 is now at 25. The historical average is about 15. Stocks are getting overvalued and it is becoming difficult to find Strong Buys in any area. Therefore, we may be adjusting our concentrations in February.

The Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates will be low throughout 2010. However, if interest rates do start to rise, the best stocks will be in the financial and tech areas.

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